五洲特纸：价稳量增，新产能贡献增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.466 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 327 million yuan, up 205.9% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 316 million yuan, an increase of 239.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.035 billion yuan, which is an 11.6% year-on-year increase, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20.6% to 95 million yuan [2]. - The company is benefiting from new production capacity in Hubei, which is expected to increase quarterly production and sales to over 400,000 tons [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 10.7%, stable year-on-year but down 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was 4.7%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to high raw material costs [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 126 million yuan, a decrease from 654 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to reduced recovery of time deposits [3]. - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 410 million yuan, 554 million yuan, and 746 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.2X, 9.8X, and 7.3X [3]. Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company has successfully launched new products, including 22,000 tons of digital transfer paper and 18,000 tons of drawing paper in 2023, and has acquired 35,000 tons of industrial liner capacity [2]. - The company’s production capacity is expected to reach 2.096 million tons with the completion of new lines in Hubei, and ongoing projects include various paper types, indicating a clear growth path [2]. - The company is also working on increasing its chemical pulp capacity, which is expected to mitigate cyclical impacts [2].