POP MART(09992) 国盛证券·2024-10-25 12:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992 HK) [3] Core Views - Pop Mart's overseas business has entered a rapid development phase with a focus on the DTC (Direct To Customer) model, achieving significant growth in overseas revenue [1] - The company's overseas revenue in H1 2024 increased by 259 6% YoY to RMB 1 351 billion, accounting for 29 7% of total revenue [1] - Southeast Asia is the fastest-growing market, with revenue increasing by 478 3% YoY to RMB 556 million in H1 2024 [1] Channels - Pop Mart has rapidly expanded its offline stores and robot stores overseas, with 92 stores and 162 robot stores as of June 2024 [1] - The company adopts a "platform + independent station" strategy for online channels, leveraging third-party platforms and building its own independent sites to strengthen brand influence [1] Operations - Pop Mart focuses on product customization and localized promotion, collaborating with international brands and local artists to enhance cultural integration [1] - The company actively operates on international social media platforms and collaborates with KOLs to promote its products [1] Supply Chain - Pop Mart has established overseas bonded warehouses in Southeast Asia and North America, supporting its global supply chain system [1] - The company has achieved a stable inventory level of around RMB 900 million in H1 2024, despite high overseas sales growth [1] Market Potential - The global toy market is expanding, with the Southeast Asian market showing strong growth potential due to its young population and cultural similarities with China [1] - Pop Mart's focus on Southeast Asia is expected to drive long-term growth, leveraging the region's market potential and demographic dividend [1] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with overseas revenue projected to reach RMB 5 149 billion in 2024, representing a 383% YoY increase [1] - Pop Mart's net profit is forecasted to grow by 117 5% YoY in 2024, reaching RMB 2 354 billion [1] Valuation - The report estimates Pop Mart's target market value at RMB 90 5 billion for 2025, corresponding to a 30x PE ratio, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]