巨化股份：制冷剂景气延续，业绩持续改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Add - B" [1][2] Core Views - The report highlights that the refrigerant market remains buoyant, leading to continuous improvement in the company's performance. The company has effectively leveraged its competitive position in the fluorinated refrigerant market and integrated operations to achieve stable production and sales growth across various product lines [1][3] - The report anticipates sustained growth in refrigerant prices due to supply constraints and regulatory changes, which are expected to significantly enhance the company's profitability [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.906 billion yuan, an increase of 11.83% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.258 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 68.40% [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 16.95%, up by 4.08 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported a revenue of 5.826 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.53% year-on-year and a decline of 11.86% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The report projects revenues of 24.812 billion yuan, 28.857 billion yuan, and 31.798 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.1%, 16.3%, and 10.2% [2][4] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a leading position in the refrigerant market, with a market share of 38% in the third-generation refrigerants. The concentration ratio (CR3) for various refrigerants is notably high, indicating a favorable market structure [3] - The average prices for key refrigerants have shown significant increases, with R32 rising by 120.29% year-to-date, indicating strong demand and pricing power in the market [3] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing price increases in refrigerants due to regulatory changes and supply constraints. The continuous expansion into high-value-added products is expected to further enhance profitability [2][3]