TAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP INC：培优素养表现稳健，学习机持续推新拉动销量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of $13.80, indicating a potential upside of 31.4% from the current price of $10.50 [1][3][6]. Core Insights - TAL Education's revenue for Q2 FY2025 reached $619 million, representing a 50% year-over-year increase, surpassing both the report's and Bloomberg's consensus estimates of 45% and 46% respectively. This growth was primarily driven by strong demand for quality education training and sales of learning machines [1]. - The adjusted operating profit for the same quarter was $65 million, with an operating margin of 10%, which is a decline of approximately 2 percentage points year-over-year but still better than expectations [1]. - The report highlights that the learning services segment saw an estimated revenue growth of around 80% year-over-year, driven by strong demand and an increase in enrollment due to the expansion of teaching points [1]. - The sales of learning machines also maintained high growth, with estimated sales of 100,000 to 150,000 units in Q2, supported by the launch of new products [1]. - Marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue increased by nearly 6 percentage points to 29%, while management expenses decreased by 9 percentage points to 19%, indicating ongoing operational efficiency improvements [1]. Financial Projections - For Q3 FY2025, which is typically a slower season for the education industry, revenue is expected to grow by 39% year-over-year to $520 million, supported by the performance of small class training and new product sales [1]. - The report projects an adjusted operating profit margin of -3.5% for Q3, compared to -2.7% in the same period last year [1]. - The financial outlook for FY2025 estimates total revenue of $2.103 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 41.1% [2][5][8]. Valuation - The report adjusts the FY2025 operating profit estimate to $48 million, reflecting better-than-expected performance in the current quarter, with a profit margin of 2% [1]. - For FY2026 and FY2027, the operating profit margins are expected to stabilize at approximately 6% and 10%, with absolute profit values of $146 million and $274 million respectively [1]. - The valuation methodology includes a 20x price-to-earnings ratio for the education business and a 1x price-to-sales ratio for learning machines, supporting the target price of $13.80 [1].