甘源食品：2024年三季报点评报告：业绩稳健增长，盈利能力边际改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, with a 15.58% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2024, reaching 563 million yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 17.10% year-on-year to 111 million yuan [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.606 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.23%, and a net profit of 277 million yuan, up 29.48% year-on-year [1] - The company is expanding its product range and enhancing its health-oriented innovations to meet changing consumer demands, contributing to sales growth in both domestic and overseas markets [1] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 gross margin and net margin improved, with gross margin at 36.80% and net margin at 19.66%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.44 percentage points and 3.17 percentage points respectively [1] - The company’s operating expenses, including sales, management, and R&D expenses, have seen slight increases, but the effective tax rate was reduced from 25% to 15% due to high-tech enterprise recognition, leading to a slight improvement in net profit margin [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 2.283 billion yuan, 2.821 billion yuan, and 3.498 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 23.55%, 23.58%, and 24.01% [2] Comparable Company Analysis - The company’s P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 16.2, 13.5, and 11.4 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [3] - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is 22.8 for 2024, suggesting that the company is undervalued relative to its peers [3] Financial Forecasts - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 2.004 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.308 billion yuan by 2026, indicating strong growth potential [4] - The net profit is forecasted to increase from 158 million yuan in 2022 to 579 million yuan in 2026, with a consistent upward trend in profitability [5]