新集能源：煤炭业绩保持稳健，板集二期投产驱动电量大增

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The coal sector performance remains stable, with the commissioning of the Banji Phase II project driving electricity generation [1] - The company aims to establish a robust operational target during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a projected asset scale of 55 billion yuan and annual revenue of 15 billion yuan [2] - The company is expected to transition from a coal company to a coal-electricity integrated company, enhancing profitability and achieving valuation recovery [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 9.189 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.19% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.824 billion yuan, down 5.01% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.63% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.45% [1] - The average selling price of coal for Q1-Q3 2024 was 562 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.14% year-on-year [1] Coal Sector Insights - The company’s raw coal production for Q1-Q3 2024 was 15.5771 million tons, down 6.17% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal was 13.786 million tons, down 9.50% year-on-year [1] - The company’s coal sales price in Q3 was 558 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.45% [1] - The company’s coal self-use ratio increased to 39% in Q3, up 11 percentage points year-on-year [1] Electricity Sector Insights - The Banji Phase II power plant was commissioned on schedule, contributing to stable growth in the electricity segment [1] - The company achieved a total electricity generation of 8.116 billion kWh in Q1-Q3 2024, an increase of 16.14% year-on-year [1] - The average on-grid electricity price (excluding tax) was 405.8 yuan per MWh, a slight decrease of 0.93% year-on-year [1] Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 2.260 billion yuan, 2.449 billion yuan, and 2.820 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.87 yuan, 0.95 yuan, and 1.09 yuan per share [2] - The company is expected to maintain a low valuation with PE ratios of 9.13, 8.43, and 7.32 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]