Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber (688295) 民生证券·2024-10-26 03:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's profitability continues to face pressure, with a significant year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit [2] - The company is actively expanding into new growth areas such as low-altitude economy and aerospace [4] - The company's cash flow has improved significantly, with a notable reduction in accounts receivable and a positive operating cash flow [3] Financial Performance - 24Q1-Q3 revenue was 1,119 million yuan, down 30.46% year-on-year, with a net loss of 8 million yuan compared to a profit of 293 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - 24Q3 revenue was 386 million yuan, down 30.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of 33 million yuan compared to 72 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The company's gross margin in 24Q3 was 11.57%, down 20.54 percentage points year-on-year and 8.70 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] Market and Product Analysis - The company's sales volume increased by over 10% in 24H1, but revenue declined by 31% due to price reductions in the carbon fiber market [3] - The company's product mix has shifted, with over 45% of sales in the new energy sector (hydrogen, wind power, and photovoltaic thermal fields), over 30% in the sports and leisure sector, and increased sales in the aerospace sector [3] - The average price of T700 (12K) carbon fiber in East China in 24Q3 was 113.69 yuan/kg, down 30.9% year-on-year and 11.1% quarter-on-quarter [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on optimizing sales through the integration of sales modules, strengthening the sales team, and building a multi-channel sales model [4] - The company is expanding into new markets such as low-altitude economy (eVTOL, cargo drones, etc.), electronic 3C (foldable phones, laptops), and large structural components and bridge maintenance [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of -40 million yuan in 2024, 124 million yuan in 2025, and 232 million yuan in 2026 [4] - The company's 2025-2026 dynamic PE ratios are 161X and 86X, respectively [4] - The company's scale and cost advantages are significant, and it is actively exploring new growth areas, which supports the "Recommend" rating [4] Financial Metrics - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 21.7% in 2025 and 18.8% in 2026 [6] - The company's net profit margin is expected to improve from -2.66% in 2024 to 10.71% in 2026 [6] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from -0.83% in 2024 to 4.58% in 2026 [6]