甘源食品：经营向上，业绩显韧性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with a total revenue of 1.606 billion yuan in Q1-3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.23%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 277 million yuan, up 29.48% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 563 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.58%, and a net profit of 111 million yuan, which is a 17.10% increase year-on-year [1] - The company has successfully expanded its sales through various channels, including traditional distribution and e-commerce, and has introduced new products to enhance its market presence [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a gross profit margin of 36.8% in Q3 2024, a slight decrease of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in channel structure [1] - The sales expense ratio was 11.4%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the expansion of the sales team and increased online promotional expenses [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 19.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a lower tax rate of 15.5% due to the recognition of the parent company as a high-tech enterprise [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 4.27 yuan, 4.98 yuan, and 5.70 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] - The revenue is expected to grow from 2.288 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.292 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.9%, 21.5%, and 18.4% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 398 million yuan in 2024 to 532 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 20.9%, 16.6%, and 14.5% respectively [2]