KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 国泰君安·2024-10-26 05:23Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of RMB 2,240.12 [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a total revenue of RMB 123.1 billion, up 16.9% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 60.8 billion, up 15.0% YoY [4] - The company is expected to achieve its full-year revenue growth target of 15%, driven by structured product efforts and flexible shipment adjustments [3][4] - Non-standard Moutai products are expected to grow at a double-digit rate in Q4, supporting the company's revenue growth [4] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached RMB 39.7 billion, up 15.6% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 19.1 billion, up 13.2% YoY [4] - Gross profit margin for Q3 was 91.05%, down 0.47 pct YoY, while net profit margin was 48.23%, down 0.99 pct YoY [4] - Pre-sale deposits stood at RMB 11.2 billion at the end of Q3, flat compared to Q2 [4] Product and Channel Analysis - Moutai liquor revenue in Q3 was RMB 32.6 billion, up 16.3% YoY, while series liquor revenue was RMB 6.2 billion, up 13.1% YoY [4] - Direct sales channel revenue grew 23.5% YoY to RMB 18.3 billion, while wholesale channel revenue grew 9.7% YoY to RMB 20.5 billion [4] - The iMoutai platform contributed RMB 4.5 billion in Q3, down 18.4% YoY, accounting for 12% of total revenue [4] Market and Valuation - The company's market capitalization is RMB 1,958.2 billion, with a 52-week price range of RMB 1,261.00 to RMB 1,812.00 [7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 22.79x for 2024E, with a target P/E of 33x for 2024 [4] - The company's price-to-book ratio (P/B) is 9.0x, and the net debt ratio is -26.58% [8] Industry Comparison - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies is 21x for 2024E, with an average revenue CAGR of 11% from 2023 to 2025 [12] - Key competitors include Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with revenue growth rates ranging from 4% to 25% [12]