Haoneng(SH:603809) Huachuang Securities·2024-10-26 06:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price range of 11.1 to 14.8 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 26% to 68% from the current price of 8.78 yuan [1][2]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 net profit met expectations, showing a high growth rate with a year-on-year increase of 63% [1]. - Revenue for the first three quarters reached 1.69 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 243 million yuan, reflecting a 63% increase [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company has overcome operational lows this year, with steady progress in new product development and significant growth expected from the differential gear business [2]. Financial Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.4% [2]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 81 million yuan, up 35% year-on-year and down 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit margin of 14.7%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin improved to 34.6%, up 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the growth in the Luzhou Haoneng differential gear business and fluctuations in military business settlements [2][3]. Growth Drivers - The differential gear business is expected to see significant profit release this year, with projected incremental revenue of over 200 million yuan, turning from loss to profit [2]. - The company aims to become a leading supplier of automotive transmission systems in the medium to long term, with plans to launch new products such as hollow motor shafts and precision planetary reducers [2]. - The aerospace business is expanding its product lines, with expectations for growth driven by new orders in civil aviation [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 360 million yuan, 429 million yuan, and 527 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 97.7%, 19.3%, and 22.9% [3][2]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14, 12, and 10 times, respectively [2].