PJRC(600395) 信达证券·2024-10-26 07:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Panjiang Co Ltd (600395) [1] Core Views - Panjiang Co Ltd's Q3 2024 revenue was 2.403 billion yuan, up 3.49% YoY and 14.59% QoQ, but net profit attributable to shareholders was -2 million yuan, down 101.3% YoY and 112.29% QoQ [1] - The company's coal production in Q3 2024 was 2.44 million tons, down 13.61% YoY, with coal prices rising 4.01% QoQ to 815 yuan/ton [1] - Panjiang's coal production capacity is expected to reach 25.2 million tons/year by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The company's power generation business saw significant growth, with 3.902 billion kWh generated in the first three quarters of 2024, up 7379.53% YoY [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Panjiang's revenue was 2.403 billion yuan, with a net loss of 2 million yuan [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.449 billion yuan, down 15.36% YoY, and net profit of 34 million yuan, down 95.47% YoY [1] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio reached 70.78% in Q3 2024, up 6.22 percentage points from 2023 [1] Business Development - Panjiang is accelerating the construction of coal-fired power projects, including the 2×660MW Panjiang Xinguang project and 2×660MW Panjiang Puding project [2] - The company's new energy projects have achieved grid-connected capacity of 1.22GW, with 2.35GW under construction or planned [2] - Panjiang is the only platform for coal and power business integration under Guizhou Energy Group, with significant potential for asset injection [1] Industry Outlook - The report is optimistic about the fundamentals of the coking coal industry and the company's development potential under energy reform and transformation [2] - Panjiang's position as a leading coking coal producer in Southwest China is expected to strengthen with its expanding production capacity [1] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Panjiang's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 56 million yuan in 2024, 734 million yuan in 2025, and 1.065 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - EPS is projected to be 0.03 yuan/share in 2024, 0.34 yuan/share in 2025, and 0.50 yuan/share in 2026 [2] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 219.76x in 2024, 16.68x in 2025, and 11.49x in 2026 [2]