SCIE(600546) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-26 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's coal production and sales are recovering, leading to a significant increase in performance on a quarter-over-quarter basis. The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated at 30.05 billion, 34.45 billion, and 35.67 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.52, 1.74, and 1.80 CNY per share, resulting in PE ratios of 9, 8, and 7 times based on the closing price on October 25, 2024 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 21.965 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 23.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.082 billion CNY, down 47.72% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.908 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 3.84% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.68%. The net profit for the same period was 0.791 billion CNY, down 12.20% year-on-year but up 11.82% quarter-over-quarter [1][2]. - The company's coal production in Q3 2024 was 9.1218 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 15.96% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.81%. The sales volume of traded coal also saw a quarter-over-quarter increase of 9.99% [1][2]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The average selling price of coal in Q3 2024 was 632.9 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.33%. The cost of self-produced coal was 268.3 CNY per ton, down 12.23% year-on-year, contributing to an increase in gross margin [1][2]. - The gross margin for coal business in Q3 2024 was 36.18%, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.16 percentage points [1]. Dividend Policy - The company has set a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% for 2024, consistent with its historical payout rates [2].