Wintrue Holding(002539) 华创证券·2024-10-26 10:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 10.68 CNY, compared to the current price of 8.33 CNY [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.697 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.78%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 669 million CNY, a decrease of 6.36% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 584 million CNY, an increase of 3.98% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.691 billion CNY, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter changes of +13.02% and -22.47%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 215 million CNY, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter changes of +5.93% and -10.40%, respectively [1]. - The report highlights a recovery in phosphate fertilizer prices, while the chemical products segment remains under pressure. The average market prices for various fertilizers showed mixed trends, with significant increases in diammonium phosphate prices driven by demand [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 834 million CNY, an increase of 319 million CNY compared to the same period last year. However, the operating cash flow for Q3 was negative, primarily due to a delay in revenue recognition linked to raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The company is actively enhancing its nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer supply chain, with ongoing projects including a 700,000-ton ammonia project and a 4 million-ton phosphate mining project [2]. - The financial forecasts for the company indicate a projected net profit of 912 million CNY for 2024, with expected growth rates of 2.3%, 17.7%, and 19.9% for the following years [3].