Shijiazhuang Shangtai Technology (001301) 民生证券·2024-10-26 12:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, citing strong cost control, enhanced customer acquisition efforts, and a clear growth trajectory [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with stable profitability and steady growth in shipments [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 3.62 billion, a YoY increase of 14.16%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 578 million, up 1.72% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 1.526 billion, a YoY increase of 26.75%, with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 221 million, up 35.33% YoY [1] - The company's domestic capacity is gradually being realized, and overseas capacity planning is clear, with a new project in Malaysia expected to produce 50,000 tons of lithium-ion battery anode materials annually [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 gross margin was 24.72%, up 2.10 percentage points YoY, while net margin was 14.49%, up 0.92 percentage points YoY [1] - The company's Q3 2024 operating expense ratio was 6.36%, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 0.10%, 1.38%, 3.74%, and 1.14% respectively [1] - The company's Q3 2024 unit profit was approximately RMB 3,400 per ton, with expectations of stable unit profit in Q4 [1] Shipments and Capacity - The company's Q1-Q3 2024 shipments are estimated at 147,000 tons, with Q3 shipments at 64,500 tons, and full-year shipments expected to exceed 210,000 tons, a YoY increase of over 40% [1] - The company's new base in North Suzhou is expected to start production by the end of 2024, and the Malaysia project is planned to be completed within 24 months [1] Financial Forecasts - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 799 million, RMB 952 million, and RMB 1.227 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with YoY growth rates of 10.5%, 19.2%, and 28.9% [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20x, 16x, and 13x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's EPS is projected to be RMB 3.06, RMB 3.65, and RMB 4.70 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] - The company's PB ratio is expected to be 2.5x, 2.2x, and 2.0x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to be 12.29x, 10.77x, and 8.73x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]