中国巨石：产品涨价落地，Q3业绩同环比改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance showed improvement with revenue of 3.893 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.27%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 572 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.38%. However, the net profit after deducting non-recurring items increased by 49.18% year-on-year [2][3] - The price increase of products has led to improved profitability, with the average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn rising by 2.90% year-on-year to 4315 yuan/ton, and fine yarn prices increasing by 16.66% year-on-year to 9199 yuan/ton. Export demand for glass fiber and its products grew by 21.88% year-on-year in July-August 2024 [2][3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.554 billion, 3.077 billion, and 3.773 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -16.1%, 20.5%, and 22.6% [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 3.893 billion yuan, up 8.27% year-on-year, while net profit was 572 million yuan, down 6.38% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 528 million yuan, up 49.18% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 28.18%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 15.38%, a decrease of 2.33 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 14.378 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of -3.3% [4] Market Outlook - The economic recovery and the introduction of favorable policies are expected to boost the demand for glass fiber, leading to improved profitability for the company [3] - The company’s stock is projected to have a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 17x, 14x, and 11x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 8.4%, 9.4%, and 10.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.64 yuan, 0.77 yuan, and 0.94 yuan respectively [5]