贵州茅台：Q3业绩符合预期，稳字当头韧性强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][10]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 123.12 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.83 billion yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 101.13 billion yuan and 19.39 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 15.9% and 24.4% [2]. - The report expresses confidence in the company's steady growth, highlighting the potential for revenue increase through product pricing strategies and marketing initiatives [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 39.67 billion yuan, a 15.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 19.13 billion yuan, up 13.2% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor in Q3 was 32.56 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.3% year-on-year increase, while series liquor revenue was 6.25 billion yuan, up 13.1% [2]. Product Analysis - Moutai liquor's internal structure is expected to improve, benefiting from price increases and contributions from non-standard products [2]. - The growth rate of series liquor is anticipated to slow down due to channel optimization for Moutai 1935 [2]. Channel Analysis - Revenue from direct sales and wholesale agents for the first three quarters of 2024 was 51.99 billion yuan and 68.53 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.5% and 21.0% respectively [2]. - The report notes a decline in i Moutai's revenue, which is expected to impact overall sales performance [2]. Financial Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 48.2%, with a slight decline in gross margin and an increase in sales expense ratio [2]. - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of Q3 2024 were 9.93 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease from the previous quarter but a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects revenue growth rates of 16.3%, 10.0%, and 7.9% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 15.2%, 10.3%, and 8.2% respectively [3]. - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 68.55 yuan, 75.62 yuan, and 81.85 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.7, 20.6, and 19.0 [3].