SCIE(600546) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-26 14:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with Q3 self-produced coal production and sales improving quarter-on-quarter. It is expected that Q4 production and sales will remain stable compared to Q3. Additionally, the cost per ton of coal has significantly decreased, indicating effective cost control [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21.965 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.99% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.082 billion yuan, down 47.72%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 7.908 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.84% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.68%. The net profit for Q3 was 791 million yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year but up 11.82% quarter-on-quarter [10]. - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 at 1.51, 1.60, and 1.67 yuan respectively. Based on comparable companies' average PE of 10.75x for 2024, the target price has been raised to 16.23 yuan, an increase of 2.50 yuan [10]. Production and Sales - The company produced 24.5 million tons of raw coal in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.72%. The sales volume of commercial coal was 33.11 million tons, down 15.99% year-on-year. In Q3, raw coal production was 9.12 million tons, up 1.81% year-on-year and 15.96% quarter-on-quarter. The sales volume for Q3 was 12.28 million tons, down 1.46% year-on-year but up 6.44% quarter-on-quarter [10]. Cost Management - The average selling price for coal in the first three quarters was 676.52 yuan per ton, down 6.24% year-on-year. The cost per ton of coal was 292.78 yuan, with a gross profit of 383.74 yuan per ton. In Q3, the average selling price was 660.3 yuan per ton, down 6.46% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 268.3 yuan, a decrease of 12.23% quarter-on-quarter. The gross profit per ton in Q3 was 392 yuan, down 2.05% quarter-on-quarter [10]. Trade Business - The company reported coal trading revenue of 8.794 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.71%, with a trading volume of 14.2892 million tons, an increase of 14.72% year-on-year. The average selling price was 615.41 yuan per ton. The company has successfully developed new coal sources from Malaysia and Indonesia, optimizing its overseas coal supply structure [10].