KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-26 15:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in Q3 with a cumulative revenue of 123.12 billion yuan and a net profit of 60.83 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 16.91% and 15.04% respectively, indicating that the annual revenue target of 15% is achievable [3][4]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 39.67 billion yuan, with a net profit of 19.13 billion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 15.56% and 13.23% respectively [3]. - The report highlights a decrease in contract liabilities to 9.93 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2024, down 4.20 billion yuan from the end of 2023, indicating improved cash flow management [3]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor reached 32.56 billion yuan and 6.25 billion yuan respectively in Q3, with year-on-year growth of 16.32% and 13.14% [4]. - The increase in Moutai liquor revenue is attributed to a price hike of 20% for the Feitian product and increased supply of non-standard products [4]. - Direct sales and wholesale channels generated revenues of 18.26 billion yuan and 20.54 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 23.50% and 9.72% [4]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 91.69%, slightly down from the previous year, attributed to a shift in product mix towards lower-priced series liquor [4]. - The net profit margin for Q3 was 48.23%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.99 percentage points, influenced by increased taxes and fees [4]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 174.39 billion yuan, 188.02 billion yuan, and 202.43 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.8%, 7.8%, and 7.7% [6][7]. - The net profit forecast for the same years is 86.93 billion yuan, 94.98 billion yuan, and 102.87 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.3%, 9.3%, and 8.3% [6][7]. Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 78.39 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase from the previous year [9]. - The report indicates a cash flow net amount of 38.17 billion yuan for 2024, suggesting improved liquidity [9].