尚太科技：2024年三季报业绩点评：Q3业绩符合市场预期，盈利持续优于同行

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q3 performance met market expectations with revenue of RMB 3.62 billion in 24Q1-Q3, up 14.2% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 580 million, up 1.7% YoY [2] - Gross margin was 25.2%, down 2.1 pct YoY, and net profit margin was 16%, down 2.0 pct YoY [2] - In 24Q3, revenue was RMB 1.53 billion, up 26.7% YoY and 23.9% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 220 million, up 35.3% YoY and 6.3% QoQ [2] - Gross margin in 24Q3 was 24.7%, up 2.1 pct YoY but down 0.1 pct QoQ, and net profit margin was 14.5%, up 0.9 pct YoY but down 2.4 pct QoQ [2] Financial Performance - 24Q1-Q3 operating cash outflow was RMB 530 million, down 43.1% YoY, with 24Q3 outflow at RMB 420 million, turning negative YoY and QoQ [3] - 24Q1-Q3 capital expenditure was RMB 570 million, up 258.7% YoY, with 24Q3 expenditure at RMB 200 million, up 224% YoY and 4% QoQ [3] - Inventory at the end of 24Q3 was RMB 1.34 billion, up 10.1% from the end of Q2 [3] Market and Industry Outlook - The company is expected to ship 210,000 tons in 2024, with a potential 40% growth in 2025 [2] - In 24Q3, shipments were approximately 64,000 tons, up 26% QoQ, with cumulative shipments of 148,000 tons in 24Q1-Q3 [2] - Market share increased to 10.3% in 2024 (Jan-Aug), up 1 pct from 2023, with August market share reaching 11.6% [2] - New capacity of 100,000 tons is expected by the end of 2024, with potential shipments of 280,000-300,000 tons in 2025, a 40% increase [2] - A new 50,000-ton capacity in Malaysia is planned, expected to start production in 26H2, supporting overseas customer expansion and long-term shipment growth [2] Profitability and Valuation - 24Q3 unit profit was in line with expectations, with a negative electrode price of approximately RMB 23,900/ton, down slightly QoQ, and gross profit per ton of RMB 5,900/ton, flat QoQ [2] - Operating profit per ton in 24Q3 was RMB 3,300/ton, down about 10% QoQ, but still significantly better than the industry average [2] - The company's cost advantage is evident, with expected net profit per ton of RMB 3,400 in 2024, maintaining at RMB 3,400/ton in 2025 [2] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is revised to RMB 801 million, RMB 1.02 billion, and RMB 1.28 billion, respectively, with a target price of RMB 98 based on 25x 2025 PE [3] Financial Metrics - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 5.20 billion, up 18.46% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 801 million, up 10.83% YoY [1] - 2025E revenue is projected at RMB 6.62 billion, up 27.32% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.02 billion, up 27.26% YoY [1] - 2026E revenue is projected at RMB 8.31 billion, up 25.53% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.28 billion, up 25.30% YoY [1] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at RMB 3.07, RMB 3.91, and RMB 4.90, respectively [1]