KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Huaxin Securities·2024-10-27 01:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) [1][2] Core Views - Guizhou Moutai's performance continues to show steady double-digit growth, aligning with expectations. The total revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 123.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.91%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 60.83 billion yuan, up 15.04% year-on-year [1][2] - The report highlights that the revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor for Q1-Q3 2024 was 101.13 billion yuan and 19.39 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.88% and 24.36% [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, total revenue was 39.67 billion yuan, an increase of 15.56% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 19.13 billion yuan, up 13.23% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin slightly decreased, while the sales expense ratio increased year-on-year. The operating cash flow net amount showed a year-on-year decline of 11.16% for Q1-Q3 2024 [1][5] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, direct sales and wholesale agency revenues were 18.26 billion yuan and 20.54 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 23.50% and 9.72%. The "i Moutai" revenue was 4.52 billion yuan, down 18.37% year-on-year [1] - Domestic and international revenues for Q3 2024 were 37.53 billion yuan and 1.28 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.22% and 35.74% [1] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for Guizhou Moutai for 2024-2026 to 68.28 yuan, 78.89 yuan, and 90.68 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 23, 20, and 17 [1][4]