Tesla(US:TSLA) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-27 02:11Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Tesla (TSLA.O) with a target price of $278 [2][11]. Core Insights - Tesla's gross margin has significantly exceeded expectations, reaching 19.8% in Q3, compared to the anticipated 17%. The energy segment achieved a record gross margin of 30.5%, while automotive gross margin improved to 16.4% [2][10]. - The production cost is expected to continue decreasing, with the introduction of a new $25,000 model slated for production in H1 2025, which is anticipated to drive a new wave of delivery growth [2][11]. - The Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is progressing, with sufficient computing power in place to support its deployment [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - Q3 revenue increased by 8% year-over-year to $25.2 billion, with automotive, services, and energy revenues growing by 2%, 29%, and 52% respectively [7][10]. - The overall gross margin improved by 2 percentage points year-over-year, driven by cost reductions and increased production efficiency [10]. 2. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The revenue estimates for FY2024E-FY2026E have been slightly adjusted to $100.8 billion, $116.8 billion, and $136.6 billion respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of $8.8 billion, $12.2 billion, and $15.5 billion [2][11]. - The report highlights that the new affordable model and the Cybertruck's production ramp-up are expected to significantly boost sales in 2025 [2][11].