SIEYUAN(002028) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2024-10-27 02:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company, Siyi Electric, is a leading private power equipment manufacturer focusing on core products such as high-voltage switches and transformers. It is expected to benefit from high overseas demand for power equipment, with future overseas orders and profit margins likely to exceed expectations [1][2] - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 6.17 billion and 890 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 16.3% and 26.6%. The demand for core products, particularly high-voltage switches and transformers, is strong, and the proportion of overseas revenue is increasing, leading to an overall gross margin increase of 2.7 percentage points to 31.8% [1][3] - The company has a high order-to-revenue conversion rate, with conversion rates of 103%, 102%, and 103% for the years 2021 to 2023, respectively. The order growth rates were 23%, 17%, and 36% for the same years, indicating strong growth certainty and sustainability [1][3] Summary by Sections Market Expectations - The market expects stable profit levels with limited room for improvement, and linear extrapolation of revenue and profit growth from overseas business [2] - The company is predicted to see an increase in overseas business share and gross margin due to high demand for transformers and high-voltage switches, which will elevate overall profitability [2] Overseas Business Development - The overseas revenue and orders have been growing rapidly, with orders of 2.25 billion, 2.99 billion, and 4.01 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 50.0%, 32.9%, and 34.1%. In the first half of 2024, overseas revenue reached 1.51 billion yuan, a 40% increase, accounting for 25% of total revenue [3] - The macroeconomic background indicates that with the arrival of a rate-cutting cycle, the cost of loans for overseas renewable energy projects will decrease, accelerating project construction [3] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 15.26 billion, 18.66 billion, and 23.01 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.5%, 22.3%, and 23.3%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 2.08 billion, 2.60 billion, and 3.17 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 33.1%, 25.2%, and 22.0% [9][11]