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金徽酒:Q3业绩符合预期,稳扎稳打做增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.33 billion RMB for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit of 330 million RMB, up 22.2% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 570 million RMB, with a 15.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 40 million RMB, showing a significant increase of 109% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2][4]. - The company has adjusted its marketing strategy, focusing on large clients and user engagement, which has led to a notable recovery in revenue growth from external markets, with a 38% increase year-on-year, while internal market growth was more stable at 4% [3][4]. - The profit margin for Q3 2024 increased by 3.0 percentage points to 6.6%, despite a slight decrease in gross margin by 1.5 percentage points, indicating improved operational efficiency [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.33 billion RMB, with a net profit of 330 million RMB, reflecting a strong performance compared to the previous year [2]. - The Q3 revenue breakdown shows products priced below 100 RMB saw a decline of 24%, while products priced between 100-300 RMB and above 300 RMB increased by 15% and 42% respectively [3]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin improved to 6.6% in Q3 2024, driven by a reduction in sales expenses and management costs, which indicates a focus on cost control and operational efficiency [3][4]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 3.01 billion RMB, 3.45 billion RMB, and 3.93 billion RMB respectively, with expected growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 14% [4][7]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is 400 million RMB, 466 million RMB, and 550 million RMB, with growth rates of 22%, 16%, and 18% respectively [4][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.79 RMB, 0.92 RMB, and 1.09 RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 26, 22, and 19 [4][7].