ROYALFLUSH INFO(300033) 民生证券·2024-10-27 04:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, citing potential market recovery and AI-driven growth as key factors [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The company's Q3 2024 revenue showed a positive turnaround, with a 4.81% YoY increase to 945 million RMB, and sales collection grew by 5.62% YoY to 958 million RMB, indicating operational recovery [3] - Recent favorable policies, including the People's Bank of China's 500 billion RMB liquidity support initiative, have boosted A-share market activity, with daily trading volume reaching 1.86 trillion RMB since September 24, 2024 [3] - The company is leveraging AI technology, particularly its HithinkGPT and Hipilot models, to enhance financial services and expand market opportunities [3] - The report forecasts 24-26 year net profits of 1.615, 1.955, and 2.377 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 67, 55, and 45 times [3][4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to parent company was 288 million RMB, a 7.47% YoY decrease, while Q1-Q3 net profit was 651 million RMB, down 15.53% YoY [3] - The company's 2024E revenue is projected at 4.059 billion RMB, with a 13.89% growth rate, and net profit is expected to reach 1.615 billion RMB, a 15.14% increase [4][6] - Gross margin remains stable at around 89% from 2024E to 2026E, with net profit margin expected to improve from 39.78% to 40.66% over the same period [6] AI Development - HithinkGPT, the company's financial dialogue model, utilizes a 2999B Token pre-training dataset for diverse applications including financial advisory and intelligent customer service [3] - Hipilot, based on HexinCoder, offers capabilities such as code generation and intelligent Q&A, positioning the company to benefit from AI-driven financial services growth [3] Market Environment - A-share market activity has significantly increased since late September 2024, with historical data showing that similar trading volume surges in 2015 and 2020 led to substantial profit growth for the company [3] - The financial information industry is expected to recover in 2024-2025, with increased market transactions and AI integration potentially benefiting the company's core business [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's 2024E PE ratio is 67x, decreasing to 55x and 45x in 2025E and 2026E respectively [4][7] - PB ratio is projected to decline from 13.4x in 2024E to 10.7x in 2026E, while EV/EBITDA is expected to decrease from 59.13x to 39.25x over the same period [7]