Xingfa Chem(SH:600141) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-27 05:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 slightly exceeded expectations, driven by stable phosphate ore prices and a recovery in glyphosate prices, along with strong performance in the specialty chemicals segment [2]. - The report forecasts that the phosphate chemical industry will remain strong, and the silicon chemical sector is expected to recover in Q4 [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 are projected to be 1.63, 2.01, and 2.25 yuan respectively, with a target price maintained at 24.34 yuan [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 22.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.04%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.314 billion yuan, up 37.85% year-on-year [2]. - For Q3 alone, revenue was 8.646 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.54% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 509 million yuan, marking a 52.73% year-on-year increase and a 20.26% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 18.86%, significantly up by 6.25 percentage points year-on-year, although it slightly decreased by 1.62 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Market Outlook - The phosphate fertilizer market is expected to enter a winter storage demand peak in Q4, while phosphate ore supply is anticipated to decrease as it enters a rest period [2]. - Glyphosate prices are expected to rise due to declining inventory levels in domestic factories since August, with a potential recovery in North American purchasing in Q4 [2]. - The silicon industry is projected to see a reduction in supply during the traditional dry season, with improving fundamentals in the photovoltaic sector likely to boost sentiment in the silicon supply chain [2].