JD(HK:09618) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-10-27 05:14Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for JD Group [2][4]. Core Views - JD Group is expected to benefit from the appliance trade-in policy and the upcoming Double 11 shopping festival, with a projected stable GMV growth in Q3 and a potential outperformance compared to the retail market [2][3]. - The company is forecasted to achieve revenue growth of 5% annually from 2024 to 2026, with non-GAAP net profit expected to grow significantly, particularly in 2024 with a 22% increase [2][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for JD Group are as follows: 1,046.2 billion CNY in 2022, 1,084.7 billion CNY in 2023, and expected growth to 1,137.8 billion CNY in 2024, 1,198.9 billion CNY in 2025, and 1,261.1 billion CNY in 2026 [3][11]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be 28.2 billion CNY in 2022, increasing to 35.2 billion CNY in 2023, and further to 42.9 billion CNY in 2024, 47.3 billion CNY in 2025, and 51.0 billion CNY in 2026 [3][11]. - The report indicates a stable gross margin improvement, with expectations of 15.4% in 2024, 15.6% in 2025, and 15.8% in 2026 [11][12]. Market Context - The report highlights that JD Group is a key beneficiary of the government's appliance trade-in policy, which has already seen over 10 million consumers participating, leading to significant sales boosts [1][2]. - The upcoming Double 11 shopping festival is anticipated to enhance JD's sales performance, with extensive promotional activities planned [1][2].