KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Ping An Securities·2024-10-27 05:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates stable growth, with a focus on maintaining its leading position in the industry [4] - The company has increased shareholder returns, committing to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% for 2024-2026 and announcing a share buyback plan of 3 to 6 billion yuan [4] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory despite overall consumer pressure, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 being 86 billion, 94 billion, and 102 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15.0%, 9.6%, and 8.3% [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 123.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, and a net profit of 60.8 billion yuan, up 15.0% [3] - In Q3 2024, total revenue reached 39.7 billion yuan, growing 15.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 19.1 billion yuan, an increase of 13.2% [3] - The revenue from Moutai liquor in Q3 2024 was 32.6 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year, while series liquor revenue was 6.2 billion yuan, growing 13.1% [4] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 91.0%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 48.2%, down 1.0 percentage points [4] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 171.9 billion, 188.2 billion, and 203.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.4%, 9.5%, and 8.0% [5] - Projected net profits for the same years are 85.96 billion, 94.26 billion, and 102.05 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.0%, 9.6%, and 8.3% [5] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 36.5% in 2024, 36.7% in 2025, and 36.5% in 2026 [8] Cash Flow Summary - Operating cash flow for 2023 is reported at 66.5 billion yuan, with projections of 95.4 billion yuan for 2024 [7] - The net increase in cash for 2023 is -2.1 billion yuan, with a projected increase of 20.1 billion yuan in 2024 [7]