YTL(000960) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-27 05:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the expected upward trend in tin prices due to supply constraints [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 29.213 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 13.21% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.283 billion yuan, an increase of 17.18% year-on-year [1]. - The supply of tin from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to remain tight, impacting production and prices positively, especially with the growing demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and electronics [1][2]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.921 billion yuan, 2.273 billion yuan, and 2.371 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 11, and 11 times [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.438 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.60% quarter-on-quarter but a decrease of 3.58% year-on-year. The net profit for the same period was 484 million yuan, up 2.10% quarter-on-quarter and up 18.56% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 11.63%, an increase of 3.36 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 2024 saw a gross profit margin of 11.09%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 1.36 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Production and Supply - The company produced approximately 19,000 tons of tin metal in Q3 2024, a decrease of 16.67% quarter-on-quarter due to maintenance activities. Copper and zinc production were 34,700 tons and 37,600 tons respectively, with zinc production increasing by 5.32% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Tin ore supply from Myanmar and Indonesia has decreased significantly, with Myanmar's imports down 52% and Indonesia's refined tin exports down 40% year-on-year [1]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that the demand for tin is expected to grow rapidly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, alongside a recovery in the electronics industry driven by AI trends [1]. - The anticipated supply-demand dynamics are expected to push tin prices higher, benefiting the company as a leading player in the tin industry [1].