TFC(300394)2024-10-27 06:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][2] Core Views - The earnings forecast has been lowered, but the target price remains unchanged at 152.21 CNY, with a "Buy" rating maintained. The company's performance in Q3 was below expectations due to foreign exchange impacts, but profitability remains stable. The demand for 1.6T is expected to increase starting Q4 [3][2] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.394 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 98.55%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 977 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 122.39%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 839 million CNY, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.76%, while profit decreased by 14.25% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The gross margin for Q3 was 59.04%, with a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of approximately 0.73 percentage points, while the net profit margin fell significantly by 7.17 percentage points to 38.41% [3][4] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 1.241 billion CNY, 2.497 billion CNY, and 3.243 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.24 CNY, 4.51 CNY, and 5.85 CNY [3][10] Market Outlook - The report indicates that the industry outlook remains positive, with expectations for increased demand for 1.6T products. The market is optimistic about the continued shipments of Nvidia's H100 in Q3/Q4, and the new AI chips are expected to drive demand for 800G/1.6T products [3][2]