Tesla(US:TSLA) Huajing Securities·2024-10-27 06:46Investment Rating - Tesla (TSLA US) is rated as "Buy" with a target price of US$270 00, indicating a 26% upside potential from the current price of US$213 65 [2] Core Views - Tesla's 3Q24 gross margin improved significantly to 19 8%, up 1 8/1 9 percentage points YoY/QoQ, driven by a 4 6% QoQ reduction in vehicle cost to US$35,106 [3] - Elon Musk expects 20-30% growth in new vehicle sales in 2025, with Cybercab production reaching 2 million units annually in the future [3][4] - Tesla plans to launch a cheaper model priced below US$30,000 in 2025, and FSD V13 is expected to be released soon, improving intervention intervals by 5-6 times [4] - The Lathrop factory is rapidly developing, and the Shanghai factory is expected to start shipments in 1Q25, with fixed energy storage product capacity reaching 100GWh annually [4] Financial Performance - 3Q24 revenue was US$25 18 billion, up 7 8% YoY but down 1 2% QoQ, with operating profit reaching US$2 72 billion, up 54 0%/69 3% YoY/QoQ [3] - 3Q24 GAAP/non-GAAP net income was US$2 17/2 51 billion, up 16 9%/8 1% YoY, with operating cash flow and free cash flow at US$6 26/2 74 billion [3] - 2024E/2025E/2026E EPS is forecasted at US$2 82/3 54/4 51, with 2024E EPS revised up by 7% [2] - 2024E/2025E/2026E revenue is projected at US$98 87/117 18/140 12 billion, with non-GAAP net income at US$9 05/12 21/15 56 billion [4][7] Valuation - Tesla's 2024E P/E for the automotive business is maintained at 90x, while the energy storage business is valued at 10x P/S, resulting in a target price of US$270 00 [8][9] - The automotive business is valued at US$708 82 billion, energy storage at US$96 13 billion, and services/other at US$52 51 billion, totaling US$857 46 billion [9] Industry Outlook - The automotive and auto parts sector is rated as "Overweight" [1]