新集能源：盈利稳健，成长可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xinjie Energy (601918.SH) with a stable and promising growth outlook [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.189 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.824 billion yuan, down 5.01% year-on-year [2][3] - The coal business showed a slight increase in prices quarter-on-quarter, with a comprehensive selling price of 562 yuan/ton for the first three quarters of 2024, up 3.14% year-on-year [3] - The power generation segment saw a significant increase in output, with a total generation of 8.604 billion kWh for the first three quarters of 2024, up 16.14% year-on-year [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.204 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.63%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.45% [2] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 649 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.86% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.16% [2] - The company’s coal production for the first three quarters was 15.5771 million tons, down 6.17% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal was 13.786 million tons, down 9.5% year-on-year [3] Business Segments Summary - The coal business maintained a unit gross profit of 221.2 yuan/ton for the first three quarters of 2024, up 10.36% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 39% [3] - The power generation segment's average on-grid electricity price was 0.4058 yuan/kWh for the first three quarters of 2024, down 0.93% year-on-year, while the revenue from power generation was 3.293 billion yuan, up 15.1% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its power generation capacity with new projects, which are expected to enhance the synergy between coal and power generation [4] Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 12.528 billion yuan, 14.086 billion yuan, and 15.592 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 2.322 billion yuan, 2.583 billion yuan, and 2.782 billion yuan [4][5]