KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Huafu Securities·2024-10-27 08:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" with a strong certainty of achieving the annual target completion [1][3][7] Core Views - Guizhou Moutai reported a revenue of 120.78 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.95%, and a net profit of 60.83 billion yuan, up 15.04% year-on-year, indicating strong growth resilience [1] - The company has set a revenue growth target of 15% for 2024, which appears achievable based on the current performance [1] - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 38.85 billion yuan, a 15.29% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 19.13 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.23% year-on-year growth [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 91.05% and a net margin of 49.3%, with slight declines in both margins compared to the previous year [1] - The company’s pre-receivables for Q3 2024 were 11.17 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year, indicating a stable cash flow situation [1] Product and Channel Analysis - Revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in Q3 2024 was 32.56 billion yuan and 6.25 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 16.32% and 13.14% [1] - Direct sales and distribution channels generated revenues of 18.26 billion yuan and 20.54 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 23.50% and 9.72% year-on-year [1] Regional Performance - Domestic revenue reached 37.53 billion yuan, up 15.22% year-on-year, while international revenue was 1.28 billion yuan, growing 35.74% year-on-year [1] Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is 85.61 billion yuan, 97.40 billion yuan, and 110.41 billion yuan respectively, with a maintained "Buy" rating [2][5]