燕京啤酒：量价表现稳健，运营效率稳步提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of stock performance relative to the market benchmark over the next six months [5][12]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable volume and price performance, with operational efficiency steadily improving. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.846 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.288 billion yuan, up 34.73% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights a slight adjustment in profit forecasts due to revenue growth being below expectations, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 revised to 0.852 billion, 1.053 billion, and 1.276 billion yuan respectively [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for Q3 2024 reached 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.19%, with a net profit of 530 million yuan, up 19.84% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company reported a gross margin of 47.99% in Q3 2023, an increase of 0.03 percentage points compared to the previous year, and a net profit margin improvement to 13.37% [4]. - The average selling price per ton of beer in Q3 2024 was 4,201.98 yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.06% year-on-year [3]. Cost and Efficiency - The cost per ton of beer in Q3 2023 was 2,185.27 yuan, showing a minor decrease of 0.01% year-on-year, attributed to effective cost control and operational efficiency improvements [3][4]. - The report notes that the company has implemented measures such as optimizing supply chain management and enhancing management practices to improve operational efficiency [3][4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.30 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 35, 28, and 23 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][6]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow at a rate of 5% in 2024, with a gradual decline to 4% in subsequent years [6][9].