兴发集团：2024年三季报点评：三季度归母净利润同环比增长，兴福电子IPO首发上会获通过

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][10][11] Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year increase in net profit of 52.73% in the third quarter, driven by stable operations in the phosphate chemical industry [4][10] - The company is expected to maintain high phosphate rock prices due to declining grades and increasing downstream demand, with a forecast for continued high prices in Q4 2024 [7][10] - The IPO application for the subsidiary Xingfu Electronics has been approved, indicating strong growth potential in the electronic chemicals sector [9][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 22.05 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.04% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.314 billion yuan, up 37.85% year-on-year [4][10] - The third quarter alone saw revenue of 8.646 billion yuan, a 3.54% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 509 million yuan, reflecting a 52.73% year-on-year growth and a 20.26% quarter-on-quarter increase [4][10] Business Overview and Outlook - The main profit sources for the company include phosphate rock, phosphate fertilizer, and certain specialty chemicals, while glyphosate and organosilicon segments remain under pressure [4][10] - The company has multiple projects underway, including a 20,000 tons/year 2,4-D project and a 400,000 tons/year organosilicon new materials project, which are expected to enhance its competitive edge in green pesticides and silicon-based materials [10][11] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its earnings forecast for 2024-2026, projecting net profits of 1.857 billion yuan, 2.160 billion yuan, and 2.446 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 34.7%, 16.3%, and 13.2% [10][11] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 1.67 yuan, 1.94 yuan, and 2.20 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.9, 11.9, and 10.5 [10][11]