KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Guohai Securities·2024-10-27 08:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient performance in Q3 2024, achieving a total revenue of 396.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 191.32 billion yuan, up 13.23% year-on-year. This performance exceeded the annual growth target of 15% [1]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1,231.23 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.91% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 608.28 billion yuan, a 15.04% increase [1]. - The company is expected to meet its annual revenue growth target, supported by macroeconomic policies and the upcoming consumption peak during the New Year and Spring Festival [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Guizhou Moutai's revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor was 325.59 billion yuan and 62.46 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 16.32% and 13.14%. The revenue from Moutai liquor accounted for 83.90% of total revenue, an increase of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The direct sales channel revenue in Q3 2024 was 182.61 billion yuan, up 23.50% year-on-year, with the direct sales channel's share increasing by 2.93 percentage points to 47.06% [1]. - The company’s net profit margin in Q3 2024 was 51.11%, a slight decrease of 0.82 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increases in tax and sales expense ratios [1]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for Guizhou Moutai for 2024-2026 is as follows: - Revenue: 1,732.73 billion yuan (2024), 1,943.37 billion yuan (2025), 2,170.68 billion yuan (2026) - Net profit: 862.15 billion yuan (2024), 968.99 billion yuan (2025), 1,089.91 billion yuan (2026) - EPS: 68.63 yuan (2024), 77.14 yuan (2025), 86.76 yuan (2026) [3][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable performance due to product structure optimization, marketing channel reforms, and capacity expansion [3]. Market Performance - As of October 25, 2024, Guizhou Moutai's stock price was 1,558.85 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 1,958.22 billion yuan [1][6]. - The stock has shown a performance of 11.4% over the past month, 9.0% over the past three months, but a decline of 4.1% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [1].