海泰新光：大客户库存持续消化，整机业务加速成熟

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a continuous inventory digestion from major clients, leading to an acceleration in the maturity of its complete machine business. Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2024, the company is expected to see a gradual recovery in shipment volumes as client inventory levels decrease. The international business localization capabilities are improving significantly, which is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of domestic operations [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022: 477 - 2023: 471 - 2024E: 414 - 2025E: 517 - 2026E: 653 - Year-over-Year Growth Rate: - 2022: 54% - 2023: -1% - 2024E: -12% - 2025E: 25% - 2026E: 26% [1] - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2022: 183 - 2023: 146 - 2024E: 146 - 2025E: 178 - 2026E: 221 - Year-over-Year Growth Rate: - 2022: 55% - 2023: -20% - 2024E: 1% - 2025E: 21% - 2026E: 24% [1] - Earnings Per Share (in CNY): - 2022: 2.10 - 2023: 1.20 - 2024E: 1.20 - 2025E: 1.46 - 2026E: 1.82 [1] Business Outlook - The company has reported a revenue of 3.19 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-over-year decline of 15.30%. The net profit for the same period is 0.97 billion CNY, down 17.60% year-over-year. The decline is attributed to the impact of major clients reducing inventory levels [1][3]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in shipment volumes as client inventory levels decrease, with a focus on expanding its international business and enhancing local delivery capabilities [1][3]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The company has increased its marketing and R&D investments, leading to a relatively stable profitability profile. The sales expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 is reported at 4.91%, with management and financial expense ratios also showing slight increases [1][3]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 is 65.74%, reflecting a year-over-year increase, while the net profit margin is reported at 30.78%, showing a slight decline [1][3].