GWMOTOR(601633) 民生证券·2024-10-27 08:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Great Wall Motors (601633.SH) with a closing price of 27.82 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 18/15/13 for the years 2024-2026 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 142.25 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.43 billion CNY, up 108.8% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the total revenue reached 50.83 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%. However, the net profit decreased by 7.8% year-on-year to 3.35 billion CNY, attributed mainly to foreign exchange losses in financial expenses [1]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle in Q3 2024 was 173,000 CNY, showing a slight increase of 2.9% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s high-end models, particularly the Tank series, showed strong performance, with sales of 54,000 units in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.4% [1]. - Overseas wholesale sales reached 122,000 units in Q3 2024, marking an 11.9% increase year-on-year, indicating a steady global expansion [1]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 202.91 billion CNY, 247.15 billion CNY, and 271.86 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.16 billion CNY, 16.07 billion CNY, and 17.98 billion CNY [2][4]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 26.1% in 2024, followed by 17.1% in 2025 and 21.8% in 2026 [2][4]. - The projected PE ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 34, 18, and 15, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [2][4].