Juewei Food (SH:603517) Huaan Securities·2024-10-27 08:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is undergoing a store optimization phase aimed at enhancing franchisee returns and improving store efficiency, with continuous cost benefits being released, leading to sustained profitability [1][2] - The Q3 revenue was 1.675 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 143 million yuan, down 3% year-on-year, indicating that performance met market expectations [1] - The company expects to achieve revenue of 6.49 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year, followed by growth of 15.0% and 12.4% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [2][3] Revenue Analysis - Q3 revenue breakdown by product: Fresh goods 1.26 billion yuan (down 16%), packaged products 160 million yuan (up 152.6%), and franchise management income 20 million yuan (up 4.2%) [1] - Revenue by region in Q3 showed significant declines in Central China (-24.3%) and South China (-8.7%), while North China experienced a growth of 9.7% [1] Profit Analysis - Q3 gross margin increased by 5.4 percentage points to 31.1%, driven by a decline in raw material prices [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 improved by 0.9 percentage points to 8.5% due to effective cost management [1] Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 530 million yuan in 2024, 628 million yuan in 2025, and 732 million yuan in 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 54.0%, 18.4%, and 16.6% respectively [2][3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 for 2024, 18 for 2025, and 15 for 2026 [1][2]