贵州茅台2024Q3点评：行稳致远

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 39.671 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.132 billion yuan, up 13.23% year-on-year [1] - The company is actively managing inventory levels of its series products to ensure healthy growth, while also exploring new business consumption potential to expand its demand base [1] - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 173.25 billion yuan, 190.87 billion yuan, and 206.99 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 85.81 billion yuan, 94.90 billion yuan, and 103.04 billion yuan [2][5] Revenue Analysis - In Q3 2024, the revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor grew by 16.3% and 13.1% respectively, with Moutai liquor's revenue share in the liquor business increasing by 0.38 percentage points to 83.9% [1] - Direct sales and wholesale revenue in Q3 2024 increased by 23.5% and 9.7% year-on-year, with direct sales revenue's share in the liquor business rising by 2.93 percentage points to 47.1% [1] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 91.05%, attributed to disruptions in the series liquor segment [1] - The net profit margin in Q3 2024 declined by 0.82 percentage points to 51.11% [1] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 150.56 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 18.0%, and net profits of 74.734 billion yuan, reflecting a 19.2% increase [5] - The projected P/E ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23, 21, and 19 respectively [2]