Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) EBSCN·2024-10-27 08:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the coming years [2]. Core Views - Yanjing Beer reported a revenue of 12.85 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and a net profit of 1.29 billion yuan, up 34.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on cost control and product upgrades, which have contributed to improved profit margins despite a slowdown in sales volume and price growth [1][3]. - The introduction of the flagship product, Yanjing U8, has been a significant driver for sales growth, particularly in the mid-to-high-end market segment [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Yanjing Beer achieved a revenue of 4.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 530 million yuan, reflecting a 19.8% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 45.09%, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.07 percentage points, attributed to product mix upgrades [1]. - The sales expense ratio decreased to 11.98% for the first three quarters, down 0.79 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost management [1]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue nurturing its core product, Yanjing U8, and expects to benefit from the gradual recovery of consumer demand and ongoing reform benefits [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 985 million yuan, 1.274 billion yuan, and 1.551 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 6% to 7% due to current weak beer consumption [2]. Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.35 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.55 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 30x, 23x, and 19x [2].