Peacebird(SH:603877) EBSCN·2024-10-27 08:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (downgraded) [1] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue down 13.1% year-on-year to 4.54 billion yuan and net profit down 48.6% to 110 million yuan [1] - The report highlights the pressure on various brands and channels, particularly in direct sales stores, amid a weak retail environment [1] - The company anticipates a potential recovery in Q4 due to the traditional winter sales season and consumer stimulus policies [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue and net profit showed significant declines, with quarterly revenue for Q3 at 1.4 billion yuan and a net loss of 63.38 million yuan [1] - Year-on-year revenue changes for Q1 to Q3 were -12.9%, -12.3%, and -13.9%, while net profit changes were -26.9%, -62.9%, and an expanded loss [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 54.9% [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, reducing net profit estimates by 59%, 34%, and 22% respectively, with expected EPS of 0.47, 0.93, and 1.24 yuan for those years [1][2] Brand and Channel Performance - Revenue contributions from various brands in the first three quarters of 2024 were as follows: PB Women's wear (39%), PB Men's wear (39%), Le Town (8%), MP Children's wear (12%), and other income (1%), with respective year-on-year declines of -11.6%, -7.4%, -31.5%, -16.8%, and -59.8% [1] - Online and offline revenue accounted for 26% and 73% of total revenue, with year-on-year declines of -9.5% and -14.7% respectively [1] - The company had a total of 3,476 stores by the end of September 2024, a net decrease of 255 stores since the beginning of the year [1] Cost and Expense Analysis - The expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 3.4 percentage points to 52.2%, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 40.5%, 8.0%, 2.8%, and 1.0% respectively [1] - The report indicates that while sales, management, and R&D expenses decreased in absolute terms, the overall expense ratio increased due to declining revenue [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the winter sales season and consumer stimulus policies, which may improve performance in Q4 [1] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor changes in the retail environment and consumer demand moving forward [1]