EASTMONEY(300059) 开源证券·2024-10-27 09:00Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's market share in securities brokerage and margin trading has increased, with a significant growth in customer deposits [1][2] - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 6.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, with Q3 net profit at 1.99 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1% [2] - The company's fund distribution income was slightly below expectations, but an improvement is expected in Q4 [2] - The company's investment income contributed 28% to the profit in the first three quarters [2] - The company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upward to 9.3/12.2/14.1 billion yuan, with expected EPS of 0.6/0.8/0.9 yuan [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 38.5/29.3/25.4 times for 2024-2026 [2] Brokerage and Margin Trading - The company's net income from fees and commissions (mainly securities brokerage) for the first three quarters was 3.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [2] - The estimated market share of stock and fund trading volume in Q3 2024 increased compared to the mid-year report [2] - The scale of client deposits reached 112.8 billion yuan at the end of Q3, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64% [2] - The net interest income for the first three quarters was 1.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, with a margin trading market share of 3.06%, up 0.06 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The scale of margin financing at the end of Q3 was 43.8 billion yuan, a 5% decrease from the beginning of the year [2] - The company's self-operated investment income for the first three quarters was 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49%, with an annualized investment return rate of 3.7% [2] Fund Distribution - The company's revenue from fund distribution for the first three quarters was 2.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27%, with Q3 revenue at 720 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7% [2] - The market sentiment was relatively weak from July to mid-September, leading to pressure on the net value of equity funds and a decline in front-end subscription and redemption fees [2] - The total issuance of equity funds in Q3 was 46.9 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16% [2] - The market turned around at the end of September, with the equity fund index rising by 12% in Q3, and the total scale of equity funds reaching 8.02 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% [2] - The company's AUM growth is expected to drive an improvement in trailing commission income, with a significant improvement in fund distribution income expected in Q4 [2] Financial Summary and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2024E is forecasted at 11.26 billion yuan, with a net profit of 9.3 billion yuan [3] - The company's gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 95.5%, with a net margin of 82.6% [3] - The company's ROE for 2024E is forecasted at 12.2%, with an EPS of 0.59 yuan [3] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is 38.5 times, with a P/B ratio of 4.4 times [3] Company Information - The current stock price is 22.70 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 358.33 billion yuan [4] - The company's total share capital is 15.786 billion shares, with a circulating share capital of 13.359 billion shares [4] - The company's turnover rate in the past three months was 261.61% [4]