GOLDWIND(002202) 国金证券·2024-10-27 09:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 35.84 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.79 billion yuan, up 42.1% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 15.64 billion yuan, marking a 51.6% increase year-on-year and an 18.3% increase quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 410 million yuan, a staggering increase of 4195.3% year-on-year, although it saw a 61.6% decline quarter-on-quarter due to reduced investment income [2] - The company has seen a significant increase in its order backlog, reaching a historical high of 41.4 GW by the end of Q3, which is a 16.3% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 36.3% increase year-on-year [3] - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 14.1%, a slight decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year and a minor decline of 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the gross margin for the first three quarters was 16.3%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 59.135 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.2%, and the net profit is expected to be 2.55 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 91.56% [5] - The diluted earnings per share for 2024 is estimated at 0.603 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 18.23 [5] Operational Analysis - The company’s contract liabilities increased significantly, reaching 15.2 billion yuan, a 41.8% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 37.1% increase year-on-year, indicating a strong demand for order fulfillment [3] - The company’s inventory stood at 21.55 billion yuan, a 12.3% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 23.1% increase year-on-year, primarily due to increased procurement to meet order delivery needs [3] Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.55 billion yuan, 3.08 billion yuan, and 3.48 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [2][5] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the high growth in wind turbine bidding volumes and the commencement of domestic offshore wind projects, leading to a strong demand outlook for wind turbines in the coming year [2]