新点软件2024年三季报点评：单季度收入重回增长，化债直接受益

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with an updated target price of 44.20 CNY [3][4]. Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, and the profit forecast remains unchanged. Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 2.185 billion, 2.354 billion, and 2.565 billion CNY, respectively, with EPS of 0.73, 0.88, and 0.97 CNY [3]. - The company has returned to revenue growth in Q3 2024, with a 1.63% year-on-year increase, indicating resilience in its platform operations, which are expected to be a major growth driver [3]. - The company has shown improved financial health, with a significant reduction in losses and a net profit margin recovery, suggesting a positive trend in operational quality [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.258 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 8.71%. However, Q3 alone saw a revenue of 474 million CNY, marking a 1.63% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company incurred a loss of 13.89 million CNY in the first three quarters, a significant improvement from the previous year's loss, with the net profit margin improving from -6.45% to -1.10% [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024 is set at 2.185 billion CNY, with expected growth in subsequent years to 2.354 billion CNY in 2025 and 2.565 billion CNY in 2026. EPS is projected to increase from 0.73 CNY in 2024 to 0.97 CNY in 2026 [3][4]. - The report highlights that the company's platform business is expected to be more resilient during industry downturns, as it is tied to government procurement rather than just IT spending [3]. Market Context - The report notes that the government's recent measures to alleviate local debt risks could provide a favorable environment for the company's operations, particularly in platform services that are closely linked to fiscal spending [3].