NJTC(601975) Huachuang Securities·2024-10-27 10:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.66 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.6% [1] - The report highlights that the shipping market remains in a favorable cycle due to geopolitical disturbances and controllable supply [1] - The controlling shareholder, Changhang Group, plans to increase its stake in the company, reflecting confidence in future development [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 440 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.7% [1] - The operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 5.01 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year, while Q3 revenue was 1.48 billion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 34.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company disposed of four old vessels in 2024, generating asset disposal gains of 140 million, 70 million, and 80 million yuan in Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [1] Market and Pricing Index Summary - The average MR-TCE for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 31,000 USD/day, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [1] - In Q3 2024, the average MR-TCE was about 25,000 USD/day, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 29.6% [1] - The report notes that the demand side is supported by geopolitical factors and the retirement of old refining capacities [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been slightly adjusted to 2.04 billion, 2.15 billion, and 2.27 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.43, 0.45, and 0.47 yuan [1] - The target market capitalization is set at 21.5 billion yuan, with a one-year target price of 4.48 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 35% from the current price [1]