MANGO(300413) Guotou Securities·2024-10-27 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company with a 12-month target price of 31.50 CNY, while the stock price as of October 25, 2024, is 26.80 CNY [7][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.278 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.444 billion CNY, down 18.96% year-on-year [3][4]. - The performance in Q3 was particularly challenging, with revenue declining by 7.14% and net profit decreasing by 27.41% compared to the same period last year, primarily due to changes in corporate income tax policies [4][5]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company has made progress in cost control, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios decreasing by 3.65, 1.40, and 0.63 percentage points respectively [4]. Revenue Structure and Growth - The company's revenue structure is improving, with membership business showing strong growth. The number of effective members has exceeded 70 million, and the monthly active user count reached 268 million in August 2024 [5]. - Mango TV continues to lead in original variety shows, with a significant increase in effective plays for its shows, which rose to 2.5 billion times in Q3, a 22% year-on-year increase [5][6]. - The contribution of series to membership revenue has also increased, with the effective play ratio for member content rising to 79%, up 16% year-on-year [5]. Q4 Performance Outlook - The report highlights the importance of upcoming popular variety shows and high-quality dramas in Q4, with several key programs expected to drive viewership and engagement [6]. - The company is also focusing on short dramas and international expansion, with a significant number of micro-short dramas being produced [6]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the company's earnings expectations, forecasting revenues of 14.975 billion CNY, 16.481 billion CNY, and 17.813 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at 1.925 billion CNY, 2.265 billion CNY, and 2.481 billion CNY [9][10].