KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 德邦证券·2024-10-27 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 120.776 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60.828 billion yuan, up 15.04% year-on-year [4] - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 38.845 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.29% year-on-year growth, with the direct sales channel showing a significant increase of 23.50% [4] - The report forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 173.24 billion yuan, 190.60 billion yuan, and 207.67 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.1%, 10.0%, and 9.0% [4] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: Moutai liquor generated 32.559 billion yuan (up 16.32% YoY) and series liquor 6.246 billion yuan (up 13.14% YoY) [4] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 91.05%, a slight decrease of 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.90 percentage points to 49.25% [4] - The company’s total assets were reported at 286.77 billion yuan, with a total market value of approximately 1.958 trillion yuan [5] Financial Forecasts - Expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 86.815 billion yuan, 96.032 billion yuan, and 104.881 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 16.2%, 10.6%, and 9.2% [6] - The report anticipates a slight decline in gross margin to 91.9% in 2024, with a recovery to 92.0% in 2025 and 2026 [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 69.11 yuan, 76.45 yuan, and 83.49 yuan respectively [6]