QYDL(SZ:002039) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-27 12:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Recommendation" rating to the company, with a current price of 15.82 yuan and projected PE ratios of 22, 15, and 13 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][6]. Core Views - The company's Q3 hydropower generation experienced significant fluctuations, but improved rainfall expectations in October may lead to a recovery in generation output. The company is also advancing its solar projects, although it faces considerable operational pressures [3][4]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 265 million yuan, down 3.88% year-on-year. Q3 alone saw a revenue of 593 million yuan, down 35.88%, and a net profit of 132 million yuan, down 45.87% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company generated a total hydropower output of 1.885 billion kWh, a decrease of 39.72% year-on-year. The overall hydropower generation for the first three quarters was 4.665 billion kWh, down 5.33% year-on-year [3]. - The company's solar power generation for the first three quarters was 615 million kWh, a decline of 6.42% year-on-year, with Q3 generation at 242 million kWh, down 4.6% year-on-year [3]. Capital Investment and Dividends - The capital expenditure budget for 2024 is set at 213 million yuan, a decrease of 62.63% year-on-year, which is expected to enhance cash flow for debt repayment or dividends. The interim dividend payout ratio has increased to 32.10%, up from 30.68% in 2023, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth [3][4]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 304 million yuan, 443 million yuan, and 539 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.71 yuan, 1.04 yuan, and 1.26 yuan [4][5].