JCET(600584) 国信证券·2024-10-27 12:18Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Changdian Technology (600584.SH) [1][3] Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a record quarterly revenue of 94.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.95% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.80%, driven by increased customer demand and improved capacity utilization [1] - The acquisition of 80% of Shengdie Semiconductor enhances the company's competitiveness in the storage chip sector and strengthens its partnership with Western Digital [1] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 due to weak recovery in downstream demand, projecting net profits of 17.16 billion yuan, 25.96 billion yuan, and 31.33 billion yuan for the respective years [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 249.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.26%, and a net profit of 10.76 billion yuan, up 10.55% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 12.93%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous year, with Q3 2024 gross margin at 12.23%, a decline of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Research and development expenses increased by 13.85% year-on-year to 12.32 billion yuan, with the R&D expense ratio decreasing to 4.93% [1][2] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 35.05 billion yuan, 42.38 billion yuan, and 45.98 billion yuan for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, reflecting growth rates of 18.2%, 20.9%, and 8.5% [2] - The projected net profits for the same years are 1.716 billion yuan, 2.596 billion yuan, and 3.133 billion yuan, with growth rates of 16.7%, 51.3%, and 20.7% respectively [2] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 40.8x, 26.9x, and 22.3x respectively [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 6.2% in 2024E to 9.6% in 2026E [2]