GOLDWIND(002202) Guoxin Securities·2024-10-27 12:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][15][19] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.64 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 52% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 410 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 4195% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 62% [2][4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 2.22 billion, 3.22 billion, and 4.23 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 66.7%, 45.2%, and 31.3% [15][13] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 35.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan, up 42% year-on-year [2][4] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 16.4%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] Sales and Orders - The company sold 4.6 GW of wind turbines in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46%, with total external sales for the first three quarters reaching 9.7 GW, up 9% year-on-year [2][8] - As of the end of Q3, the company had a backlog of external orders totaling 41.4 GW, a year-on-year increase of 38% [2][8] International Business Development - The company has made significant progress in international markets, with 630 MW of new installations in Q3 2024 and a total of 1.3 GW added this year. Cumulative overseas installations reached 8.1 GW [2][8] Profitability Metrics - The company's EBIT margin is projected to improve from 2.8% in 2022 to 10.0% by 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [14][12] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 6.3% in 2022 to 9.4% in 2026 [14][12] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 20.9, 14.4, and 11.0, respectively [14][15] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to decrease from 1.16 in 2023 to 0.96 in 2026 [14][15]